Wheat - Just My Opinion

Weekly Wheat Export Sales – old crop vs. 100-500 K T. expected – new crop vs. 50-200 K T. expected

Despite the overnight rains that occurred in parts of N. Dakota and S. Dakota today’s rally in the spring wheat (Mpls) highlighted the developing concern over dryness in the northern Plains and the Canadian prairies. Some will say it’s still early but I’m not seeing any relief in the current forecasts. I’m hearing of a slight pick-up in world business but I think that’s natural when you see prices at a three month low. I’m not holding my breath for any great shakes on the upside (except for Mpls) but from a technical pint of view there is room for some upside retracement.

US cash wheat prices whether it’s for domestic demand or for export remain quiet. The nearby Chgo spread takes it on the chin today mostly in part to the index fund roll. The KC market only saw some fractional softening.

I don’t see anything major coming from Friday’s USDA supply demand report. Export numbers are in line with expectations. Some will say wheat feeding has improved. When was the last time you saw a bull market from wheat feeding. If wheat feeding has become an issue its impact will be felt mostly in the World supply-demand not so much in the US equation.   


Daily Support & Resistance – 04/08

July Chgo Wheat : $6.10 - $6.28

July KC Wheat: $5.66 - $5.82


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